covid-19 in Argentina
Apr. 1st, 2020 10:53 am![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
sigmalephToday is April 1st. I'm not saying this to warn you about this being a prank, I'm not an asshole and wouldn't lie about this subject. It's just an important day because:
1) Our original quarantine was supposed to last until March 31st. It was pretty clear going in that an extension was always in consideration, more so in the last few days, and indeed a couple days ago it was extended until April 12th. So this is the first day of the "extended" quarantine.
2) Yesterday, we had our 1000th confirmed case.
It came later than I expected. By that I mean I made some simple exponential models and even the most optimistic, which had last week been undershooting cases, expected it to happen earlier. The way the trends were looking, it should have happened on the 28th or 29th (and a few days' differences is a lot! doubling times had so far been between three and four days!).
It looks like we are seeing the first signs that quarantine is working. Expected, given incubation periods and so on, but still something of a relief.
1) Our original quarantine was supposed to last until March 31st. It was pretty clear going in that an extension was always in consideration, more so in the last few days, and indeed a couple days ago it was extended until April 12th. So this is the first day of the "extended" quarantine.
2) Yesterday, we had our 1000th confirmed case.
It came later than I expected. By that I mean I made some simple exponential models and even the most optimistic, which had last week been undershooting cases, expected it to happen earlier. The way the trends were looking, it should have happened on the 28th or 29th (and a few days' differences is a lot! doubling times had so far been between three and four days!).
It looks like we are seeing the first signs that quarantine is working. Expected, given incubation periods and so on, but still something of a relief.
